The Triple Lock

What are the alternative uprating mechanisms?

On 29 September 2026, the Prime Minister announced that the Triple Lock will be replaced from April 2030.

“From there, in April 2030, we will adjust it.

The state pension will continue to rise every year at least by prices or 2.5%.

And it will hold its value relative to earnings over time so that pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation.”

Andy Burnham, speech to Labour Party Conference, 29 September 2026

Of the options below, this is closest to the Resolution Foundation’s Smoothed Triple Lock.

CBP have previously written about a proposed mechanism: Fix the triple lock to save it (November 2025).

Click a box to compare it with other options. Some proposals can be adjusted — drag their slider to see the effect on the charts immediately. Figures are estimates from 10,000 simulated economic scenarios.

Triple Lock (baseline) — always shown for comparison
2027/28 2034/35

Every option follows the Triple Lock until that uprating. Savings run from it to 2049/50, so an earlier start has more years of savings.

Reform proposals

Explore other options

Nominal annual savings vs Triple Lock

£bn per year, mean across simulations. Positive = cheaper than the Triple Lock.

The New State Pension, £ per year

Full NSP rate under each policy, from the 2026/27 award of £12,547.60/year (£241.30/week). Before the New State Pension began in April 2016, the line is that award deflated by each earlier year's Triple Lock uprating.

The New State Pension as a share of median earnings

NSP weekly rate ÷ UK median full-time weekly earnings (ONS ASHE; projected from 2026 using AWE growth). Before April 2016 the NSP did not exist: the line deflates the 2026/27 rate by each earlier year's Triple Lock uprating.

Cumulative nominal savings vs Triple Lock, 2030/31 to 2049/50

£bn, running total of annual savings from the 2030/31 uprating, when the alternatives take effect, mean across simulations. Years are uprating years (2030 = 2030/31).